Playing with my so-called smart phone in the midst of a group of family and friends, I would speak to my phone and call up their home towns: Weather Glascow, Montana… Weather Kiev, Ukraine… Weather Taipei, Taiwan… Weather Weed, California (for Dave). The phone would proudly declare the weather in each. But worse, I suppose, with every city I mentioned, I associated it with some critical historical occurrence: Gascow, MT (Fork Peck dam construction); Kiev (tank battle Europa and the role of the Enigma machine and Colossus); Taipei (American servicemen during Vietnam); Weed, California (The Nixonian War on Drugs). Everything, every place tied to the past.
But how does one think the future? Like this?
I suppose so. And I think some fundamental predictions can be made for Seattle, WA:
More people will gravitate to Seattle. Seattle already has a technology industry which imports the best people from crucial areas of the world to reside and build families. These people alone will propel the city forward technologically and socially. Although I can imagine a day when the new techno-lefties become the ruling conservatives– once the political dinosaurs pass away due to their incapacity to adapt– their current political/social push is forward. But more people will come to fill other stations due to other reasons. 1. Hemp will attract people who wish to escape police harassment in other areas of the country. Of course, the prosecution of hemp related crimes has always centered on the relatively impoverished– further impoverishing them. Many people still value its creative and relaxive properties. They will come, and they will help. 2. Global warming will provoke anyone with a time horizon of over 20 years and orientation toward reality to think highly of a move to northern latitudes.
(Notes: 1.Many islands bought by wealthy morons will be swamped by the rising and increasingly acidic seas. 2. To think that people who always believe someone will bail them out could possibly do anything but try to maintain the status quo is ridiculous. This may be the tragedy of humanity.)
Going into this weekend, I am long Soybeans and short Bonds.
They appear roughly correlated, but I believe there are seasonal and economic reasons why they may move in opposite directions.
In so doing, I have created a hedge. For holding two gives me a 33% chance at win, a 33% chance at even, and a 33% chance at loss; whereas holding one is 50% either way. I like the risk to reward in the former. It also buys duration.
Immediate economic forecast of substantial note– i.e., sufficient to plunge the markets: none, save a symptom called Cyprus, which shows how governments (Germany) are getting a little sore at international money laundering (From Russia to Cyprus with Love).
How will the implosion/deconstruction of too big to fail banks– discussed by Bernanke and Warren– affect the market? Does this coming certainty find expression in their slowing stock prices?
More speculative still: Does this explain why traders complain of Fed capital injections? If so, do they mimic their masters at the banks or they are themselves the banks?